MW Quarterly Archive
From Our Market Blog
Vol. 3 No. 1, 2009
2009 Open Market Component Outlook
As we did last year, we’ve polled the Commodity Managers at Smith & Associates and compiled their views of where the electronic components market is headed. These views are based on current component trading, incoming requirements, inventory levels, open market product offerings and supplier data. The responses are grouped by commodity family. The following is Smith & Associates’ outlook for 2009, which we will update each quarter with the latest intelligence from the open market:
The Supply Chain is Ground Zero: The remaking of the semiconductor industry
The only constant is change.
Herakleitos (c. 535 BC – 475 BC)
Forecasts call for 2009 to be a transitional year, with 2010 holding the best likelihood for a rebound and 2012 the year to regain 2008 positions. We see 2009’s transitional events as highly significant and, in all likelihood, industry transforming. In 2009 look for consolidation, restructuring and the emergence of a new supply chain with new relationships and new strategies that will change the dynamics of the semiconductor industry.
Read more: The Supply Chain is Ground Zero: The remaking of the semiconductor industry
Navigating the New Reality for Semi: Demand-sparse economies and positive market trends
The forecasts seem to be revised daily as the downward spiral continues. Global semiconductor revenues for 2009 are tracking in Gartner’s forecasted -24.1% to -33% range from 2008 levels (www.eetimessupplynetwork.com/214502894 and www.fabtech.org/lib/printable/3465, respectively) and SEMI’s January Book-to-Bill ratio is down to 0.48, “the lowest levels since 1991” (http://www.semi.org/en/Press/CTR_028380).
Read more: Navigating the New Reality for Semi: Demand-sparse economies and positive market trends
