Last year we saw an average sale of 10% off of flat panel displays leading up to the US sports 'holiday,' Super Bowl Sunday, this weekend.

While the industry news is certainly full of many dismal display reports, retailers are trying to move the inventory, as well captured by this product & price review by PCWorld. What the review shows is that the less feature-rich (lacking in internet connectivity, lower refresh rates, fewer ports, etc.) are really seeing tremendous price drops, particularly in the large displays (greater than 40") which are the traditional cornerstone of this sport holiday sale.  3D sets are also prominent in the sales, which speaks to the question of the future of 3D TV in light of consumer spending declines for TVs, particularly in saturated markets such as North America.

Saturation is certainly at the core of the TV display market, with even the hotel industry in North America having reached full penetration for refresh sales, as reported here by iSuppli. While the 2011 shipment rates to hotels was a healthy 28% year-over-year increase, this year it is expecting to moderate to 7%, followed by an average of 4-5.5% increases through 2015, according to the same iSuppli report.  While this may seem to herald (more) bad news for the larger TV display sector, as more consumers have been switching to LEDs from LCD and plasmas in their homes, the higher end hotel chains are hearing from their customers about LED preferences.  As a result the hotel market for LED displays is likely to see an upswing over the next few years, particularly when adding the energy efficiency cost savings for hotels.

For the consumer market, the combination of numerous competitors, high inventory, (near-) saturated penetration, and failing consumer spending has resulted in negative earnings and a notable amount of consolidations, market departures, and inventory draw downs.  However, there is an increase in volume (and demand) in both North America and China for the larger (greater than 40") size presently for LCD TVs, see this recent DisplaySearch report.  As the article points out, improved features, resolutions, interactive capabilities, and other value adds in the larger LCD TVs sector is supporting increases in demand and forecasts for positive sales.

As summed up by David Hsieh in the article, Vice President of NPD DisplaySearch, "Particularly in North America and China, the two largest global LCD TV markets, consumers are responding to promotions to buy larger sizes. Panel makers are working to push this trend further by producing larger panels more efficiently. The increase in LCD TV area demand means more capacity consumption. This will be an important aspect in balancing TFT LCD supply/demand."

With LED and AMOLED also seeing more of a breakthrough in the consumer TV market, perhaps we may see a 'hail Mary' pass to help boost the display sector.

It's easy to feel like you're watching a ping-pong match these days if you are trying to keep up with the revenue, equipment investment, and market forecasts from semiconductor companies.

Certainly, the overall news from 4Q11 was that revenues were down both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, but at least there was momentum enough to clear out some inventory and lessen the concerns, somewhat, for inventory problems.  However, the buy down in inventory was not strong enough to encourage enough new orders, based on forecasts and reports thus far, and so utilization rates do not seem to have changed much, overall.  While we see some significant CAPEX spend forecasts (such as from the three titans, Samsung, Intel, and TSMC), for the most part, the lack of increased and/or strong demand, hence increased utilization rates, means that there will be a continuation of the 2011 wait-and-see by the majority of semiconductor manufacturers along the supply chain, especially for contract manufacturers.  Once the latest equipment and tool numbers are reported, we will have confirmation of this trend, but analysts and industry reports are pointing solidly in this direction.

Meanwhile, the financial analysts, and some larger semiconductor companies, are sounding the bell that the bottom has been hit and going forward will be a slow, but steady climb up to renewed volume, sales and profitability as global markets look to rebound over 2012 (see, for example, this general market view from CNBC, here from FT, here from iSuppli, and here from TI reported by ElectronicsWeekly).

Importantly, semiconductor and device manufacturers are looking very seriously and strategically at their product portfolios based on the continued strong demand for smartphones and tablet PCs, but the (quickly) waning demand for TVs and many other devices (see the following market news highlights: here from iSuppli on handset OEMs; here from FT on Phillips' sectors and the EU market; here from WSJ on Toshiba and Fujitsu; here from Reuters on Toshiba; here from ElectronicsWeekly on Altera and FPGAs; here from Gartner on PC decline; here from CNET on quad-core strength; and here from EETimes on Renesas cuts).

So, if Europe and the US, while (hopefully) beginning to see the light at the end of the macro-economic tunnel, are expected only to slowly rebound during 2012, what of all the hopes from the emerging market populations?  Yes, there is considerable demand in these markets and that has been an important part of the muted or slightly positive revenue and volume numbers.  However, as many companies have reported, the combined 2011 effects of the Japan and Thailand disruptions on the supply chain coupled with the weak and troubled macro-economic situation in the EU and US were more dominant than the positives from the emerging economies.  Targeting these newer, growing economies and their consumers and enterprise markets is an essential strategy and, eventually, may become a dominant force.  As of right now, the momentum of our industry continues to be dominated by the macro-economic situation facing the mature economies.

As we discussed earlier this week, corporate earnings that have been released are showing stronger than expected results for the bell weathers, but the situation for the wider industry remains undetermined.  As forecasts continue to come in, there is certainly the macro-economic situation which will continue to act as a counter-weight to growth.  That being said, forecasts are positive for growth this year, albeit at a more modest level, overa.  As in 2011, some sectors will continue to see significant growth (e.g., smart- and superphones, tablet PCs and eReaders, and (hopefully) ultrabooks).

Recent earnings reports and forecasts offer insights for gauging market dynamics, trends, and longer range supply/demand issues based on CAPEX, equipment, and other types of investment spending (also M&A activity). Interestingly, the major semiconductor manufacturers are showing rather bullish signs and putting significant capital behind those signals.

2011 left us with a lingering set of question marks related to inventory due to the natural disaster in Thailand just a few months after those that struck Japan, and then the ongoing macro-economic uncertainties in the US and especially Europe which dampened demand significantly.

Of course CES is all about the devices, and they were exciting, imaginative, powerful and feature-rich. What that tells us is that the next generation of components powering these devices should also be gearing up for an exciting year.

2012 is primed to be an interesting year in the smartphone world. Despite the rows upon rows of shiny new smartphones on display at CES, perhaps one of the biggest announcements occurred when Intel CEO Paul Otellini said that the company's Atom chips would make their way into phones during the first half of 2012.

As CES 2012 winds to a close, so does Microsoft's presence at the world's largest consumer electronics show. Microsoft, which has had a presence at the show since 1995, announced in December that it will no longer present a keynote or have a booth at CES after this year.

Meet the Lamborghini Aventador. The Italian-made machine has 691 horses under the hood and does 0-60 mph in less than three seconds. Top speed of 217 mph. Not a bad little ride if you've got an extra $400,000 in your couch cushions. I wasn't completely sold at first, but once I took a look at the NVIDIA-powered infotainment system, I had the checkbook out and ready to go.

A few more thoughts on the ultrabook trend at CES 2012, and the certain company that manufacturers here aren't mentioning.