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The Jump: ASPs, profits, orders, book-to-bill – pick a number, it's probably up

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Pick a number, any number!  As we sit and watch the earnings calls roll in now, coupled with forecasts for the second half of the year (2H10) and financial analysts bets on the next quarter's revenues for companies (3Q10), you can't help but smile.  Even Elpida, as summarized here by ElectronicsWeekly, who hasn't seen a profit in about three years, came in up yesterday!

If that doesn't warm you enough, keep watching one of my constant variables, book-to-bill ratios.  SEMI just came out with North American numbers for manufacturers of semiconductor equipment for March 2010: 1.19.  Bookings are up 2.7% worldwide on a three month moving average (3MMA) and billings are up 6.4% for the same variables.  That's the equivalent of a 423.3% rise for bookings and a 146.8% rise for billings year-over-year, worldwide.  No, those are not type-o's.

In fact, take a look at what's happening with Japan's book-to-bill numbers for the same sector, they're in at 1.17 for March (that's down on the month-over-month by 0.17 but up on the year-over-year by 0.87!), according to SAEJ.  That makes 10 months in a row that these numbers are up! (cf. also DigiTimes 4/20/2010, "Japan chip gear [...]")

ASPs, well, they are soaring right now thanks to high demand (cf. here), very tight supply (cf. here), at or near-capacity utilization levels and new equipment takes time to get in place and up and running (although most are using their CAPEX for next generation, but you can read more about that in the new MarketWatch Quarterly out to subscribers yesterday and to the public in 10 days).  Not sure you believe that even equipment makers are overbooked?  Teradyne just came in with their report and for 1Q10, they're up again, 23% quarter-over-quarter increase.  This for the third time in a row after a full year of straight losses, up 173% for first quarter year-over-year, and predicting to beat analysts expectations for 2Q10!

So, ready for the weekend? The news was good to us this week, again!

 


Lisa Ann Cairns, Ph.D.
Written on Friday, 23 April 2010 00:00 by Lisa Ann Cairns, Ph.D.

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