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V is for Recovery: 2009 to end up

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With the 3Q09 data rolling in, there are strong data supporting the initial 2Q09 signs of recovery having been valid and been the seeds for what will be a 4Q09 positive growth period for global semiconductor shipment revenue, according to iSuppli and SIA, in particular.

3Q09 was still down YoY, but that trend will finally cease come 4Q09, according to iSuppli's recent statement, "global semiconductor revenue is set to contract by 16.5 percent in 2009.  This follows a 5.4 percent decrease in 2008.  However, revenue is expected to rise by 10.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared to the same period in 2008."

SIA echoed these data in its long-term forecast released today for 2009-2011, "projecting worldwide sales of $219.7 billion for 2009, a decline of 11.6 percent from the $248.6 billion reported in 2008.  The forecast projects that sales will grow by 10.2 percent to $242.1 billion in 2010 and by 8.4 percent to $262.3 billion in 2011."

The continued strong sales for the largest semiconductor sectors, PCs and cell phones, in addition to the recovery beginning for industrial sectors is fuelling the positive short- and long-term forecasts for the industry by SIA

Other analysts are even more bullish and attribute the trepidation by many in the chip sector to disbelief and uncertainty around the durability of the recovery.  However, as the numbers continue to come in, it is more likely that the next major event to strike the industry will be shortages...


Lisa Ann Cairns, Ph.D.
Written on Thursday, 05 November 2009 00:00 by Lisa Ann Cairns, Ph.D.

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