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By the Numbers: Summary report of SIA's July 2009 data


The short version of SIA's results for July 2009:  numbers are good, some better than expected, with semiconductor industry revenues for July at US $18.9 billion (down month-over-month (MoM), but above normal seasonal drop).  If we look at the three month moving averages (3MMA) on a MoM basis, then we see stronger indication of the rebound: revenues were up +5.3%, units were also up by +6%, BUT ASPs were down by -0.6%.  All numbers were more than expected with seasonality, both the positives and the negatives.

Breaking down the data further, Credit Suisse's analysis of the July 2009 SIA Data (in their report titled thusly, 31 August 2009), we find the steepest revenue declines in 3MMA year-over-year (YoY) numbers in the following sectors:

  1. DRAM (-30.8% YoY)
  2. MCU (-26.3% YoY)
  3. DSP (-25.4% YoY)

On the positive side, according to the same Credit Suisse report, those sectors showing the most positive revenue increases YoY on a 3MMA were:

  1. Flash memory (-1.5% YoY)
  2. MPU (-10.8% YoY)

Considering how units tracked across the sectors YoY on a 3MMA, Credit Suisse found that Flash memory showed the most gains (+9.9% YoY), followed by DSP and Memory (the only others to be in positive territory); while Logic suffered the most decline (-17.8% YoY), followed by MCU and Analog (both in the lower, negative teens).

Finally, ASPs had an inverse effect, pulling DSPs down to the largest declines YoY (-32.0%), followed by DRAM and Memory (both in the mid- to upper -20% ranges).  On the other hand, Logic actually had the best ASP recovery (-2.2% YoY), followed by Micro and Analog (skirting just above -6% YoY).

Below is SIA's graph of their data, and it is a welcome sign to see what, for now, in the short-term we could actually call a "V" - but don't get too excited just yet, there'll always be the cyclicity to contend with and there are quiet rumblings of the Eurozone's possibility of facing a double-dip recession... (see this Economist article regarding Germany).


Source: (click HERE for the data source from SIA)

Curious trending here.  What does it mean?  There are some geographic and end-market trends that shed light on who is spending on what (see also the upcoming MarketWatch Quarterly, out in just over a week to subscribers, which will detail the geo-economics of the semiconductor industry in APAC+Japan!).

According to the Credit Suisse data (ibid, p.7), geographically we can see the dramatic effect that the stimulus packages have had on rebounding the semiconductor industry:  APAC minus Japan, accounted for US $9.94 billion in overall revenues (52.6% of overall revenues).  Japan itself was next at US $3.5 billion (18.3%) and followed by the Americas (US $3.1bn, 16.5%) and Europe (US $2.4bn, 12.6%). 

Finally, by sector, we see further evidence of which sectors are gaining momentum and how various stimulus monies and geo-economic trends are affecting the industry:  Wireless communication revenues showed dramatic rebound with MoM revenues at US $2.1bn (7.9% of overall revenues) followed by computer revenues (US $1.81bn, 23.5%) and consumer revenue (US $1.54bn, 20.0%).  MarketWatch Quarterly's upcoming issue will also provide readers with a new installment in the Sector Brief series, this one focusing on the computing sector and the state of recovery for the semiconductor industry.  Watch for it or subscribe now to receive a pre-public release copy.

Lisa Ann Cairns, Ph.D.
Written on Tuesday, 08 September 2009 00:00 by Lisa Ann Cairns, Ph.D.

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