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Flashback to Jan 2007! SEMI B:B at 1.06

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Yes, it's true, we can compare to 2007 again (sort of)!  SEMI's preliminary July book-to-bill (B:B) numbers came out in mid-August.  As the following weeks' data still look to support those numbers, it's time to revisit B:B because it is an important variable, one of a series we track regularly at Smith & Associates.

During the interim in B:B reporting, while we were quietly watching the upward B:B climb and reminding you of important stops along the way here, here and here, to name a few posts, momentum has increased and is now finally rebounding steadily.

Remember that to get really excited by these numbers, we were waiting to see the actual three month moving average (3MMA) dollar amounts get back into better territory.  The B:B ratio is, after all, just that - a ratio.  So, without strong billings AND bookings numbers, we could see a good ratio but it wouldn't herald the type of recovery we'd like.

So, enough of the tutorial.  While I must remind you these numbers are still down YoY by more than half, yes, more than half, they are at least finally getting into better territory and the bumps between months are more compelling - all good news, finally.

The preliminary July B:B is 1.06, which, as SEMI reminds us, "means that [US] $106 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month."

Here is a copy of SEMI's data in tabular form (cf.  here):

 

Billings

(Three-month avg.)

Bookings

(Three-month avg.)

Book-to-Bill

January 2009

584.2

277.2

0.47

February 2009

525.5

258.4

0.49

March 2009

438.3

245.6

0.56

April 2009

385.7

249.0

0.65

May 2009

392.6

287.8

0.73

June 2009 (final)

440.5

351.7

0.80

July 2009 (prelim.)

538.0

569.7

1.06

Source: SEMI August 2009

And don't forget to read up on and watch the effect on consumer confidence and the industry (also through investments) as a result of the US government's announcement this morning of the non-farm payroll numbers showing some slowing in job cuts, but unemployment numbers, like elsewhere around the globe, were up into severe territory.  You can start by reading more here from The Wall Street Journal, which is based on these US Department of Labor numbers, here from Reuters, or here from Kathy Lien of FX360.


Lisa Ann Cairns, Ph.D.
Written on Friday, 04 September 2009 00:00 by Lisa Ann Cairns, Ph.D.

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