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Answer: Indeed, Nowhere To Go But Up


With 2Q09 reports hitting the news in greater numbers now, our prognosticating is proving valid.  We've been through a tough economic situation and now it is time to begin the uphill climb back to a healthy semiconductor industry, with the slower macro-economic situation in tow.

The Spring 2009 Forecast from World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) came in at -21.6% for the global semiconductor market.  One might think that isn't a number we'd like to talk about, but it is.  Analysts across the board are seeing their variables tracking in stable ranges and showing multiple, verifiable, reasons to believe that upward movements in demand, ASPs, and margins are real.  -21.6% was the BOTTOM!  See also Gartner's latest rosey forecast for 4Q09, as reported here.

SEMI's three month moving average (3MMA) Book-to-Bill ratios show an increase from April's 0.65 ratio to May's forecasted 0.74.  There is more good news here:  April's billings numbers were at a low of US $385.7 million and that number has moved up by just over a percent to US $391.9, which is still an upward tick.  The May bookings levels are up 16% over April and are continuing their upward trajectory.

iSuppli has even joined the choir and they show industry revenue to have contracted by 33.8% YoY for 1Q09.  However, they also offer that it's all upward forecasts YoY through the rest of 2009.

Other analysts echo these results and almost all sources site the strong, continued proliferation of semiconductors in devices across industries as the anchor for sustainable growth.  Continued macro-economic troubles will translate into various geographic regions showing different growth rates and attaining different levels, but improvements are at hand for the global semiconductor industry.

Smith MarketWatch will be closely monitoring and reporting on the important shifts that geo-economic variables are currently having on semiconductor supply chains, EMS-ODM balances, regional strengths, and markets. 

Lisa Ann Cairns, Ph.D.
Written on Monday, 22 June 2009 00:00 by Lisa Ann Cairns, Ph.D.

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