While this news doesn't mean that the turn around is here today, these forecasts taken together with other macro- and micro-economic data for the electronics industry are pointing to a positive 2H09.
Of interest is that the positive data percolating up over the past quarter are strong and reliable indicators of an upturn, as discussed in this issue of MarketWatch Quarterly. Analysts across the board concur that the positive momentum is likely to gain even greater momentum once the recession is over. As Penn concludes, "The effect of the current downturn will be only to delay the timing of these counter-trends - it cannot reverse them. In fact it is likely to exaggerate their impact once they kick in, the tighter the spring, the stronger the rebound."
The one caveat that all of us industry analysts keep repeating: inventory issues will continue have a dampening effect unless they can be resolved and kept in check. In demand-sparse economies, you certainly don't want to be supply-heavy.